FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision
Eight times a year the Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate. The decision, statement, and projections are the single largest scheduled driver of cross-asset volatility.
Why prediction-market odds belong next to this release
Alongside the official FOMC series we overlay the implied probability from Kalshi and Polymarket — the market's own forecast for the upcoming print, pulled live through kitalpha-api. A binary contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% probability of that outcome.
These macro markets have become a genuine real-time forecast, not just a sideshow. The Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” documents how venues like Kalshi increasingly lead the macro narrative — frequently pricing in surprises ahead of, and more sharply than, traditional survey-based consensus.
Provenance
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Primary sources
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DFEDTARU
Prediction-market odds and macro data shown here are general information only and not personalized financial advice. Markets can be illiquid and odds can move sharply around releases.