Markets

The rates-and-macro complex: the Treasury curve, the spreads that describe its shape, the policy rate, market-implied inflation, the dollar and energy. Every figure is fetched from a primary public-domain source and published with its source line and its as-of date.

Rates

21 series

The Treasury par yield curve, every published tenor, plus secondary-market bill rates.

4.63% 0 bp

10-Year Treasury Par Yield

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury · As of

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Yield Curve

2 series

The shape of the curve and the two spreads that describe it: 2s10s and 3m10y.

0.45% +2 bp

2s10s Spread (10-Year minus 2-Year)

Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · As of

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Policy

3 series

Where the federal funds rate actually settles, against the range the FOMC set for it.

3.63% 0 bp

Effective Federal Funds Rate

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED · As of

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Inflation-Linked

8 series

Real (TIPS) yields and the breakeven rates the market implies from them.

2.41% +1 bp

10-Year Treasury Real Yield (TIPS)

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury · As of

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Dollar

1 series

The trade-weighted broad dollar index.

119.70 +0.03

Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED · As of

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Energy

3 series

WTI and Brent crude, and Henry Hub natural gas.

$81.96 -4.20

Crude Oil — West Texas Intermediate (Cushing, OK)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED · As of

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Recession Watch

2 series

Curve inversion and jobless claims, reported as state — never as a forecast.

197,000 +9,000

Initial Jobless Claims (seasonally adjusted)

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED · As of

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Economic Indicators

10 series

The headline macro series behind the release calendar: consumer prices, employment, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, retail spending, output, trade, factory orders, new-home sales and business inventories.

332.6 -1.4

Consumer Price Index (All Urban Consumers)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED · As of

View Economic Indicators →

Data sources and licensing

Every series above comes from the agency that produced it, and we name that agency rather than the aggregator we happened to read it through.

Source How we read it Licence
U.S. Department of the Treasury Fetched directly from the Treasury’s published daily yield-curve feed. A work of the U.S. federal government (17 U.S.C. §105). Public domain
Computed by Kitalpha Arithmetic on the public-domain series above — spreads and moving averages. The inputs are listed on each series page. A subtraction of two public-domain figures is a public-domain figure. No third-party input, so no third-party licence. Public domain
Federal Reserve Board / Reserve Banks, via FRED Redistributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Our attribution names the agency that created the data, not the aggregator. Federal works underneath. FRED’s terms permit redistribution but forbid use with AI/LLM services, so these figures are deterministic display only. Public domain

Kitalpha publishes only series it has confirmed are in the public domain — works of the U.S. federal government, or arithmetic performed on such works. That rule costs us data. Several widely-cited indicators, including the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the ICE BofA credit-spread indices and the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage survey, are available from the same feeds in a single line of code and are deliberately not shown here: each is a copyrighted commercial product rather than a government work, and each is parked pending licensing review. If that review clears them, they will appear with the owner’s citation attached. Until it does, their absence is the honest answer.

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