Economic Calendar
Every major U.S. macro release — overlaid with the market's own odds. We pair official data from the BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury with live implied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, and attach a cryptographic Signed Brief receipt to each.
On why these prediction markets increasingly lead the macro narrative, see Federal Reserve Finance and Economics Discussion Series FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets.”
| Release | Agency | Frequency | Kalshi | Polymarket | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls) NFP | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| Unemployment Rate U-3 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision FOMC | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | Roughly every 6 weeks | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | Quarterly (3 estimates) | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| PCE Price Index PCE | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | Monthly | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield 10Y | U.S. Department of the Treasury | Daily | — | — | ✓ Signed Brief |