PCE Price Index
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and the basis for its 2% target. PCE prints are a key cross-check on CPI for the rate path.
Why prediction-market odds belong next to this release
Alongside the official PCE series we overlay the implied probability from Kalshi and Polymarket — the market's own forecast for the upcoming print, pulled live through kitalpha-api. A binary contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% probability of that outcome.
These macro markets have become a genuine real-time forecast, not just a sideshow. The Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” documents how venues like Kalshi increasingly lead the macro narrative — frequently pricing in surprises ahead of, and more sharply than, traditional survey-based consensus.
Provenance
✓ This release page is backed by a cryptographic Signed Brief receipt. Verify the receipt →
Primary sources
- https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PCEPI
Prediction-market odds and macro data shown here are general information only and not personalized financial advice. Markets can be illiquid and odds can move sharply around releases.