Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Real GDP is the broadest measure of U.S. economic output, adjusted for inflation. Advance, second, and third estimates each revise the growth picture and inform the market’s read on recession risk and Fed policy.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Why prediction-market odds belong next to this release
Alongside the official GDP series we overlay the implied probability from Kalshi and Polymarket — the market's own forecast for the upcoming print, pulled live through kitalpha-api. A binary contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% probability of that outcome.
These macro markets have become a genuine real-time forecast, not just a sideshow. The Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” documents how venues like Kalshi increasingly lead the macro narrative — frequently pricing in surprises ahead of, and more sharply than, traditional survey-based consensus.
Provenance
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Primary sources
- https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDPC1
Prediction-market odds and macro data shown here are general information only and not personalized financial advice. Markets can be illiquid and odds can move sharply around releases.