10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is the global benchmark risk-free rate, set daily by the Treasury’s constant-maturity series. It anchors mortgage rates, equity valuations, and the term premium debate.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield
Why prediction-market odds belong next to this release
Alongside the official 10Y series we overlay the implied probability from Kalshi and Polymarket — the market's own forecast for the upcoming print, pulled live through kitalpha-api. A binary contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% probability of that outcome.
These macro markets have become a genuine real-time forecast, not just a sideshow. The Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” documents how venues like Kalshi increasingly lead the macro narrative — frequently pricing in surprises ahead of, and more sharply than, traditional survey-based consensus.
Provenance
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Primary sources
- https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10
Prediction-market odds and macro data shown here are general information only and not personalized financial advice. Markets can be illiquid and odds can move sharply around releases.