Unemployment Rate
The headline U-3 unemployment rate is the share of the labour force that is jobless and actively seeking work. It anchors the Federal Reserve’s maximum-employment mandate and feeds directly into recession-probability models.
Why prediction-market odds belong next to this release
Alongside the official U-3 series we overlay the implied probability from Kalshi and Polymarket — the market's own forecast for the upcoming print, pulled live through kitalpha-api. A binary contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% probability of that outcome.
These macro markets have become a genuine real-time forecast, not just a sideshow. The Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper FEDS 2026-010, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” documents how venues like Kalshi increasingly lead the macro narrative — frequently pricing in surprises ahead of, and more sharply than, traditional survey-based consensus.
Provenance
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Primary sources
- https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=UNRATE
Prediction-market odds and macro data shown here are general information only and not personalized financial advice. Markets can be illiquid and odds can move sharply around releases.