FOMC · Signed Brief

FOMC Holds at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 Percent as Three Dissent in Favor of a Hike

The Committee voted 9–3 on July 29 to leave the target range unchanged, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferring a quarter-point increase — the first dissents since the June meeting's unanimous vote.

By — Founder, Kitalpha Finance
Published 4 August 2026
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The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 on July 29, 2026, to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate [E0]“July 29, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[E2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

It was the sixth consecutive meeting at which the Committee held the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent [S1]the target range has stood at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent for 6 consecutive meetings through 2026-07-29 — Computed deterministically from the FOMC statements' parsed target ranges. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Voting against the action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, "who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting" [E9]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The vote of 9 to 3 contrasted with the unanimous 12 to 0 approval recorded at the prior meeting [E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-06-17. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The statement described the Committee as "continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system" [E3]“The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The Committee described economic activity as expanding at a "solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East" [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Policymakers stated that "productivity growth and capital investment are strong" [E5]“Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Officials noted that "job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little" [E6]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The statement said that "inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy" [E7]“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The central bank stated that it "will deliver price stability" [E8]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Data available to policymakers as of the July 29, 2026 decision showed the Consumer Price Index up 3.5% over the 12 months through June 2026 [N1]Headline CPI: +3.5% over the 12 months through June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 2.6% over the 12 months through June 2026 [N2]Core CPI: +2.6% over the 12 months through June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in June 2026 [N3]Unemployment rate: 4.2% in June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 57,000 in June 2026 [N4]Nonfarm payrolls: +57,000 in June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

The headline PCE price index rose 4.1% over the 12 months through May 2026 [N5]Headline PCE: +4.1% over the 12 months through May 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 3.4% over the 12 months through May 2026 [N6]Core PCE: +3.4% over the 12 months through May 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Kalshi prediction markets, as of 2026-07-29T17:00:50.479+00:00, assigned a 99.5 percent probability to the federal funds rate settling above 3.50 percent and a 26.5 percent probability to it settling above 3.75 percent [M4]Above 3.50%: 99.5% — Kalshi (via PredictionHunt), implied probability as of 2026-07-29T17:00:50.479+00:00. [M5]Above 3.75%: 26.5% — Kalshi (via PredictionHunt), implied probability as of 2026-07-29T17:00:50.479+00:00. .

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is scheduled to conclude on September 16, 2026 [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: September 16, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Sources

  1. [E0]“July 29, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  2. [E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  3. [E2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  4. [S1]the target range has stood at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent for 6 consecutive meetings through 2026-07-29 — Computed deterministically from the FOMC statements' parsed target ranges. federalreserve.gov ↗
  5. [E9]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  6. [Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-06-17. federalreserve.gov ↗
  7. [E3]“The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  8. [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  9. [E5]“Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  10. [E6]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  11. [E7]“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  12. [E8]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  13. [N1]Headline CPI: +3.5% over the 12 months through June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  14. [N2]Core CPI: +2.6% over the 12 months through June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  15. [N3]Unemployment rate: 4.2% in June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  16. [N4]Nonfarm payrolls: +57,000 in June 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  17. [N5]Headline PCE: +4.1% over the 12 months through May 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  18. [N6]Core PCE: +3.4% over the 12 months through May 2026 (as known on July 29, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of July 29, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  19. [M4]Above 3.50%: 99.5% — Kalshi (via PredictionHunt), implied probability as of 2026-07-29T17:00:50.479+00:00.
  20. [M5]Above 3.75%: 26.5% — Kalshi (via PredictionHunt), implied probability as of 2026-07-29T17:00:50.479+00:00.
  21. [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: September 16, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗