FOMC · Signed Brief

FOMC Raises Federal Funds Rate to 3-3/4 to 4 Percent in Unanimous 12-0 Vote

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026, by a unanimous 12-0 vote. The Committee stated that inflation "remains elevated" and that the action "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal".

By — reviewed and published by a named editor, recorded below
Published 10 October 2026

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Survey figures are quoted exactly as published in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Market Expectations, with the response-collection window and the date by which the results were available on the Bank’s website.© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.

At its September 16, 2026, meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, approving the action by a vote of 12 to 0 [E0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗[E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗[E2]“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

This is the first rate hike in the statements on Kitalpha's record since July 2024 [S1]this is the first rate hike in the statements Kitalpha holds, which begin July 2024 (2024-07-31); there is NO earlier hike on record here, so do NOT claim a specific "since" date. A record claim must NAME its window — phrase it EXACTLY as "the first rate hike in the statements on Kitalpha's record since July 2024" — Computed deterministically from the FOMC statements' parsed target ranges. federalreserve.gov ↗.

At its July 29, 2026, meeting, the Committee had voted 9 to 3 to maintain the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent [Ep0]“July 29, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The three members who voted against that action had preferred to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point at that time [Ep9]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep0]“July 29, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The current statement characterized activity as expanding at a "solid pace" [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗ and noted that "domestic spending has been resilient" [E5]“While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗; the prior statement had described the same "solid pace" of expansion but attributed uncertainty "in part, to the conflict in the Middle East" [Ep4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗, while the current statement instead referenced "geopolitical developments" [E5]“While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Officials described productivity growth as "strong" and capital investment as "robust" [E6]“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗, differing from the prior statement's characterization of both as "strong" [Ep5]“Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

On inflation, the statement said "Inflation remains elevated" [E8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗; the prior statement had characterized inflation as remaining elevated "relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy" [Ep7]“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The statement also said job gains had "kept pace with the workforce" and that the unemployment rate had "changed little" [E7]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Policymakers said "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" [E9]“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The Committee said it "will deliver price stability" [E10]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Data available to policymakers as of the September 16, 2026 decision showed the Consumer Price Index up 3.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 [N1]Headline CPI: +3.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 2.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 [N2]Core CPI: +2.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026 [N3]Unemployment rate: 4.1% in August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in August 2026 [N4]Nonfarm payrolls: +162,000 in August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

The headline PCE price index rose 3.7% over the 12 months through July 2026 [N5]Headline PCE: +3.7% over the 12 months through July 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 3.3% over the 12 months through July 2026 [N6]Core PCE: +3.3% over the 12 months through July 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026 [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

These are the Bank's rounded averages [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting concludes on October 28, 2026 [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: October 28, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Sources

  1. [E0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  2. [E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  3. [E2]“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  4. [S1]this is the first rate hike in the statements Kitalpha holds, which begin July 2024 (2024-07-31); there is NO earlier hike on record here, so do NOT claim a specific "since" date. A record claim must NAME its window — phrase it EXACTLY as "the first rate hike in the statements on Kitalpha's record since July 2024" — Computed deterministically from the FOMC statements' parsed target ranges. federalreserve.gov ↗
  5. [Ep0]“July 29, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  6. [Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  7. [Ep2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  8. [Ep9]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  9. [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  10. [E5]“While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  11. [Ep4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  12. [E6]“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  13. [Ep5]“Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  14. [E8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  15. [Ep7]“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.” — FOMC statement, 2026-07-29. federalreserve.gov ↗
  16. [E7]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  17. [E9]“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  18. [E10]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  19. [N1]Headline CPI: +3.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  20. [N2]Core CPI: +2.4% over the 12 months through August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  21. [N3]Unemployment rate: 4.1% in August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  22. [N4]Nonfarm payrolls: +162,000 in August 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  23. [N5]Headline PCE: +3.7% over the 12 months through July 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  24. [N6]Core PCE: +3.3% over the 12 months through July 2026 (as known on September 16, 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved via ALFRED vintage as of September 16, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org ↗
  25. [Nnyfed202609.20260916]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. For the 15–16 September 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 52% for the bin labelled "3.51 - 3.75%" and 47% for "3.76 - 4.00%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗
  26. [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: October 28, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗

This edition’s record

  1. DraftedAutomated (fomc-analytical-drafter (claude-sonnet-4-6))9 October 2026 at 09:24 UTC
  2. Passed the automated gateAutomated (claude-opus-4-8)9 October 2026 at 09:24 UTC
  3. PublishedEditor daniel-zhang10 October 2026 at 07:14 UTCSigned Brief receipt ↗

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