FOMC · Signed Brief

FOMC Holds Federal Funds Rate at 3-3/4 to 4 Percent in 10-2 Vote

The Federal Open Market Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28, 2026, by a 10-2 vote; Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a 1/4 percentage point increase. The Committee stated that inflation "remains elevated" and that "the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal."

By — reviewed and published by a named editor, recorded below
Published 5 November 2026

The Federal Open Market Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, according to its statement dated October 28, 2026 [E0]“October 28, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗[E2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Policymakers approved the statement by a vote of 10 to 2 [E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting [E11]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

At its September 16, 2026, meeting, the Committee had raised the range by 1/4 percentage point to that level [Ep0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep2]“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗, whereas the current statement maintained it [E2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The September statement was approved by a vote of 12 to 0 [Ep0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗, compared with the two votes against the action recorded in the current statement [E11]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Officials described economic activity as expanding at a "strong pace" [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗, compared with a "solid pace" in the September statement [Ep0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The rationale language also shifted: the previous statement said "Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" [Ep9]“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗, while the current statement says "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal" [E9]“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Both statements said "Inflation remains elevated" [E8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗[Ep8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The central bank said domestic spending "has been resilient" while uncertainty "remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments" [E5]“While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

According to the statement, "Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust" [E6]“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Policymakers said job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little [E7]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The Fed stated, "The Committee will deliver price stability" [E10]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026 [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

These are the Bank's rounded averages [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting concludes on December 9, 2026 [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: December 9, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗.

Sources

  1. [E0]“October 28, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  2. [E2]“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  3. [E1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  4. [E11]“Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  5. [Ep0]“September 16, 2026” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  6. [Ep2]“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  7. [Ep1]“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  8. [E4]“Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  9. [Ep4]“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  10. [Ep9]“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  11. [E9]“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  12. [E8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  13. [Ep8]“Inflation remains elevated.” — FOMC statement, 2026-09-16. federalreserve.gov ↗
  14. [E5]“While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  15. [E6]“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  16. [E7]“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  17. [E10]“The Committee will deliver price stability.” — FOMC statement, 2026-10-28. federalreserve.gov ↗
  18. [Nnyfed202609.20261028]The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2026 Survey of Market Expectations was distributed on 2 September 2026, with responses due by 8 September 2026, and its results were posted on the Bank's website by 8 October 2026. These responses were collected before the 16 September 2026 FOMC decision. For the 27–28 October 2026 FOMC meeting, the median of respondents' modal forecasts for the target federal funds rate or target-range midpoint was 3.63%; the 25th percentile was 3.63% and the 75th percentile was 3.88%, with 62 respondents. In the target-range midpoint distribution for that meeting, the Bank reported average probabilities of 2% for the bin labelled "3.26 - 3.50%", 44% for "3.51 - 3.75%", 41% for "3.76 - 4.00%", and 12% for "4.01 - 4.25%", with 62 respondents for each bin. These are the Bank's rounded averages. These are respondents' survey expectations, not market prices or the New York Fed's view. — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Market Expectations (September 2026). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.. newyorkfed.org ↗
  19. [C1]Next scheduled FOMC meeting: December 9, 2026 — FOMC meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov. federalreserve.gov ↗

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