The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
On Aug 5, 2026, the 10-year yielded 4.63% and the 2-year yielded 4.18%, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The 2s10s spread was 0.45 percentage points on 2026-08-05 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 45 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
Every tenor, then and now
| Tenor | Latest Aug 5, 2026 | 1 week ago Jul 29, 2026 | 1 month ago Jul 6, 2026 | 1 year ago Aug 5, 2025 | Change vs 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.77% | 3.73% | 3.69% | 4.49% | -72 bp |
| 1.5M | 3.79% | 3.80% | 3.75% | 4.48% | -69 bp |
| 2M | 3.84% | 3.83% | 3.81% | 4.41% | -57 bp |
| 3M | 3.89% | 3.83% | 3.87% | 4.34% | -45 bp |
| 4M | 3.91% | 3.91% | 3.93% | 4.29% | -38 bp |
| 6M | 3.98% | 3.97% | 3.98% | 4.16% | -18 bp |
| 1Y | 4.03% | 4.04% | 3.95% | 3.92% | +11 bp |
| 2Y | 4.18% | 4.22% | 4.13% | 3.72% | +46 bp |
| 3Y | 4.24% | 4.29% | 4.14% | 3.63% | +61 bp |
| 5Y | 4.33% | 4.37% | 4.21% | 3.77% | +56 bp |
| 7Y | 4.47% | 4.51% | 4.33% | 3.97% | +50 bp |
| 10Y | 4.63% | 4.67% | 4.48% | 4.22% | +41 bp |
| 20Y | 5.18% | 5.21% | 4.99% | 4.77% | +41 bp |
| 30Y | 5.17% | 5.20% | 4.99% | 4.78% | +39 bp |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
The spreads
A spread is one yield minus another. When it is negative the curve is inverted: the market is paying more to lend for a short period than for a long one. Both spreads below are computed by Kitalpha from the Treasury par yields on this page — subtraction, nothing more — and neither is computed at all on a day when either leg was not quoted.
2s10s Spread (10-Year minus 2-Year)
The 2s10s spread was 0.45 percentage points on 2026-08-05 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 45 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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How this is computed, and what it does and does not tell you
The 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, in percentage points. A NEGATIVE value is an inverted curve: the market is paying more to lend for two years than for ten. Every U.S. recession since 1970 has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, though the lead time has ranged from about 6 to 24 months and there has been at least one inversion without a recession — which is why this page reports the state of the curve and refuses to forecast from it.
3m10y Spread (10-Year minus 3-Month)
The 3m10y spread was 0.74 percentage points on 2026-08-05 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 74 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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How this is computed, and what it does and does not tell you
The 10-year par yield minus the 3-month par yield, in percentage points. The near-term leg makes this the spread most closely tied to the stance of current policy, and it is the measure the New York Fed's own recession-probability model is built on. As with 2s10s, a negative value means the curve is inverted.