The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
On Oct 23, 2026, the 10-year yielded 5.00% and the 2-year yielded 4.69%, per the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The 2s10s spread was 0.31 percentage points on 2026-10-23 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 31 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
Every tenor, then and now
| Tenor | Latest Oct 23, 2026 | 1 week ago Oct 16, 2026 | 1 month ago Sep 23, 2026 | 1 year ago Oct 23, 2025 | Change vs 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.11% | 4.12% | 3.99% | 4.12% | -1 bp |
| 1.5M | 4.11% | 4.14% | 4.07% | 4.08% | +3 bp |
| 2M | 4.16% | 4.17% | 4.10% | 4.05% | +11 bp |
| 3M | 4.22% | 4.26% | 4.19% | 3.95% | +27 bp |
| 4M | 4.30% | 4.32% | 4.30% | 3.90% | +40 bp |
| 6M | 4.30% | 4.34% | 4.31% | 3.78% | +52 bp |
| 1Y | 4.44% | 4.46% | 4.49% | 3.59% | +85 bp |
| 2Y | 4.69% | 4.74% | 4.85% | 3.48% | +121 bp |
| 3Y | 4.75% | 4.82% | 4.97% | 3.49% | +126 bp |
| 5Y | 4.82% | 4.89% | 4.99% | 3.61% | +121 bp |
| 7Y | 4.89% | 4.98% | 5.05% | 3.79% | +110 bp |
| 10Y | 5.00% | 5.09% | 5.11% | 4.01% | +99 bp |
| 20Y | 5.37% | 5.47% | 5.45% | 4.55% | +82 bp |
| 30Y | 5.33% | 5.43% | 5.40% | 4.58% | +75 bp |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
The spreads
A spread is one yield minus another. When it is negative the curve is inverted: the market is paying more to lend for a short period than for a long one. Both spreads below are computed by Kitalpha from the Treasury par yields on this page — subtraction, nothing more — and neither is computed at all on a day when either leg was not quoted.
2s10s Spread (10-Year minus 2-Year)
The 2s10s spread was 0.31 percentage points on 2026-10-23 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 31 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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How this is computed, and what it does and does not tell you
The 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, in percentage points. A NEGATIVE value is an inverted curve: the market is paying more to lend for two years than for ten. Every U.S. recession since 1970 has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, though the lead time has ranged from about 6 to 24 months and there has been at least one inversion without a recession — which is why this page reports the state of the curve and refuses to forecast from it.
3m10y Spread (10-Year minus 3-Month)
The 3m10y spread was 0.78 percentage points on 2026-10-23 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 78 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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How this is computed, and what it does and does not tell you
The 10-year par yield minus the 3-month par yield, in percentage points. The near-term leg makes this the spread most closely tied to the stance of current policy, and it is the measure the New York Fed's own recession-probability model is built on. As with 2s10s, a negative value means the curve is inverted.