The state of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and of weekly jobless claims, as published. This page describes the data. It does not forecast from it.
Neither curve measure is currently inverted. · As of
Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · Source data · Full series
The 2s10s spread was 0.45 percentage points on 2026-08-05 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 45 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · Source data · Full series
The 3m10y spread was 0.74 percentage points on 2026-08-05 — the curve is POSITIVELY SLOPED by 74 basis points, with the longer maturity yielding more than the shorter one.
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Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Employment and Training Administration initial claims via FRED · Source data
Weekly claims are noisy print to print, so the series that is actually watched is the 4-week moving average. Both are shown; the chart below is the 4-week average.
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Each note below is the methodology recorded for that series in Kitalpha's licensing catalog, reproduced as written. Every figure on this page is either published by a U.S. federal agency or computed by subtraction or averaging from figures that are.
The 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, in percentage points. A NEGATIVE value is an inverted curve: the market is paying more to lend for two years than for ten. Every U.S. recession since 1970 has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, though the lead time has ranged from about 6 to 24 months and there has been at least one inversion without a recession — which is why this page reports the state of the curve and refuses to forecast from it.
Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · Source · As of
The 10-year par yield minus the 3-month par yield, in percentage points. The near-term leg makes this the spread most closely tied to the stance of current policy, and it is the measure the New York Fed's own recession-probability model is built on. As with 2s10s, a negative value means the curve is inverted.
Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · Source · As of
The number of new filings for unemployment insurance in the week, seasonally adjusted, reported weekly by the Department of Labor. It is the highest-frequency read on labour-market deterioration available — which is why it appears here beside the curve. It is noisy week to week, so the 4-week moving average is the series that is actually watched.
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED · Source · As of
The mean of the four most recent weekly initial-claims prints. It is computed here rather than taken from a published average series so the arithmetic is ours and re-checkable: the four weeks used are listed on the series page. It REFUSES to produce a value for any week where fewer than four consecutive weekly observations are available, rather than averaging a short window.
Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Employment and Training Administration initial claims via FRED · Source · As of
Sources: Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Department of the Treasury par yields · Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED · Computed by Kitalpha from U.S. Employment and Training Administration initial claims via FRED. Spreads and the 4-week average are computed by Kitalpha from those figures; a spread is never computed for a date on which either leg is missing.